“Former NATO Secretary General Makes a Suggestion”
“Not a good suggestion, but it is a suggestion.”
The former Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen pitched an idea that he believes will deescalate the war between Ukraine and Russia. The proposal is for Ukraine to be partially accepted into NATO and though this would not be a full acceptance into NATO it would strengthen the Ukraine position at the bargaining table. The proposal put forth by Rasmussen is a serious proposal and worth considering, but it does seem like one that will get universal acceptance and would be expected to outrage Russia. The positive side of the proposal is that European countries are putting forth ideas to end the war and that is something that should be encouraged.
Rasmussen’s proposal is that Ukraine should be partially accepted into NATO next year when NATO leaders meet for the 75th anniversary of its founding. Partially accepted means that any Ukrainian territory that was seized by the Russians (including 2014 territory) will be outside the scope for an Article 5 NATO response but every other part of Ukraine would be available to be defended by NATO forces. This would be a first of partial acceptance and accepting a member while they are already at war. The proposal also has a secondary purpose meant to tell Russia that it cannot dictate who NATO offers membership.
This means that Ukraine would be able to free up troops to re-direct them to the fighting front as NATO takes over parts of the Ukraine border that are not experiencing fighting. NATO would establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine which would include missile attacks. NATO would seal off the battlefield and keep the war from escalating to other parts of the Ukraine. An issue with this approach is will it allow the Ukraine to advance into Russian held Ukraine territory, but Russia will not be allowed to advance into Ukraine territory because it would generate an Article 5 response? Ukraine attacks into Russia were not addressed either. It seems like this asymmetric proposal that allows for Ukraine to advance and attack Russia with no reciprocal response allowed by Russia would be ignored or rejected by Russia.
This set up of partial acceptance into NATO and the rules established for Ukraine membership puts conditions on how Russia conducts its war but sets no conditions on Ukraine. It seems doubtful that Russia would accept this proposal but would not be able to stop it unless it expanded the war or would ignore NATO rules and dare NATO to react to a Russian incursion into Ukraine territory. Partial membership puts the “ball into Russia’s court”. The proposal is also hypocritical in just as NATO does not want Russia to have a say on how the alliance operates, they are imposing a solution that reduces Russia’s options to operate (unless it chooses to escalate).
Former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev, a Putin ally, responded to the proposal rather mockingly. He stated that such an offer is an acknowledgement the Donbas and Crimea are not part of Ukraine and even that Ukraine is not even a country, but a territory artificially put together. This is a statement that is repeated by Putin and his allies before. One thing that was not said, is that this would escalate the war. It appears that, at least at this early stage, they view this as a “land for peace” proposal. Or they assess the situation in NATO that Turkey or Hungary will not accept Ukrainian membership. All NATO countries must be in unanimous agreement before a country is accepted as a NATO member. The fact that the Russians did not respond harshly is a sign that they may be willing to have an offramp to war, especially considering that Ukraine NATO membership threat was one of the reasons the Russians invaded in the first place. The caution is that Medvedev holds no official capacity in the Russian government, but he is considered a Putin hardliner, so him not outright rejecting is a sign of the hardliners potential position.
This proposal, along with the proposal to allow Ukraine to join the European Union are offers that allow Ukraine to get both economic and military stability that failed it under the Budapest Memorandum. The hard part for Ukraine to accept is the loss of territory to the Russians and this might be too far for them to accept. The point is not that this is a proposal full of risk, and Rasmussen like Medvedev holds no official capacity, it is the fact that after 20 months of war, some real concrete proposals are being proposed over the last week to find a way to out of the war in Ukraine, so these proposals and their discussions should continue to come forward.
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