“French Proposal: NATO Troops to Western Ukraine?”
“Macrone’s serious proposal or inserting his foot into his mouth?”
French President Emmanuel Macron met with 20 European heads of state in Paris on February 26, 2024 with the intent for the leaders to reaffirm their commitment to support Ukraine in its war with Russia as Macron stated that “We will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war.” This has been the standard western European statement of support, but Macron went even further and shocked his audience by proposing that the NATO alliance should be open to the possibility of sending NATO troops to western Ukraine. This statement drew criticism from the U.S. and other NATO allies and was noticed by the Russians. Was this a diplomacy error by the French President or was this a strategy of introducing strategic ambiguity?
It should be addressed what President Macron said. He stated that NATO forces should be deployed to western Ukraine and not to the eastern part of the country where the fighting in and around the Donbas and Crimea are occurring. It is not intended that NATO troops are to enter Ukraine to take up positions against the Russian army (Click to see similar proposal by former NATO Secretary General Former NATO Secretary Suggestion). Macron’s statement was to support his belief that weapons factories need to be set up in Ukraine with western personnel helping create the factories and to work in them along side Ukrainians. The NATO presence would be more for preventing the attacks on these sites, train Ukraine troops and to create “no go” zones for Russian forces to advance or attack.
Once Macron’s statement is viewed in this context, it is no longer a case of strategic ambiguity because it has a very specific purpose for NATO troops to be introduced and their role in Ukraine. This would create a situation that NATO would be clearly interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine and but more immediately relevant, it would allow Ukraine to shift large number of forces from the north and west and to the south and east and NATO occupies most of the country. Concerning to the West, it will place NATO troops much closer to an active battlefield and would be viewed by the Russians and parts of the world as escalatory.
In this context the statement clearly looks like a blunder by Macron. He has a point that Ukraine needs more help from NATO and Europe if it has any chance to eject Russia from its territory. Ukraine lacks the manpower and the economy to match Russia in a war of attrition, and the sanctions against Russia do not have the teeth to change Russia’s behavior with Russia prepared to continue its current war path through 2026. What Macron’s statement has done has played into Putin’s hand as he has been stating that the West wants to destroy Russia, and this can be construed by the average Russian or Russian supporters demonstrating that Putin’s accusation has merit.
Another reason it is a mistake that plays into Putin’s hand is NATO is split on the level of support to give Ukraine. For example, Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey are vocal in their opposition to continuing the war, much less the introduction of NATO troops and who support negotiating an end to the war due to the Ukrainian demographic position. NATO requires unanimous support of all member countries to make such a decision since Ukraine is not part of NATO and does not get Article 5 protections. Putin knows that such an agreement to introduce troops would never occur, in the current battlefield environment and tactics, so he can use it to try to weaken NATO by directing this statement by Macron to weaken the resolve of NATO countries that have shown tepid support or ambivalent on NATO support. Putin can use the Macron statement to turn timidity or ambivalence into opposition.
President Macron made this statement without agreement of fellow NATO leaders such as significant Ukraine supporters of Germany, United Kingdom, and the United States who protested the statement, so he had no consensus for such a policy statement even from the biggest Ukraine supporters. Macron still has not backed off from his statement and reiterated his belief on February 29th, so he is owning his comments and not going the “misspoken” defense. Macron has only created a rift in NATO over Ukraine at a time that funding is becoming increasingly difficult to procure.
The logic around what President Macron is not necessarily faulty, but it defies the “realpolitik” approach that NATO and the European Union has taken to keep something of a consensus on supporting the Ukraine War. His proposal lacks strategic ambiguity and would be a significant escalation if implemented. The statement of his proposal is so contrary to NATO and EU public positions it weakens the NATO and EU appearance of resolve. Russia can now use contrary statement on the world stage to justify what was once considered “fringe theory.” Both firm and tepid supporters can expect to be put on record on supporting or denying the French proposal by a world press and domestic politicians who will demand a statement of position on where their leaders stand on the war. Macron has made the situation in Europe worse and next time he has a thought; he should just keep his mouth closed and let it go.
Reference:
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-ukraine-western-troops-remarks/