NASA's Ghost of Challenger
NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel warns SpaceX
The Space Shuttle Challenger, carrying seven astronauts, launched on January 28, 1986, and exploded 73 seconds after launch, resulting in the deaths of all seven astronauts. The official reason for the accident was the failure of an O-ring seal on the shuttle's solid rocket booster, which occurred due to extreme cold temperatures. This failure allowed hot gas from the solid rocket engine to burn through the external fuel tank, resulting in the ignition of the liquid hydrogen used for the shuttle's main engines. That was the official reason. Expectations were high for the Space Shuttle, as its cost model necessitated more frequent flights. NASA was struggling to keep up a launch schedule to justify the shuttle’s cost, and management decisions pressured NASA and its contractors to push for a more frequent launch schedule. Cutting corners and taking risks unintentionally jeopardized safety.
SpaceX’s Crew-8 Crew Dragon capsule splashed down off the coast of Florida on October 25, 2024, with no apparent issues outside of one of the landing parachutes opening slightly late but well within mission tolerances and did not affect the splashdown velocity. However, NASA transported the entire Crew-8 crew, consisting of three NASA astronauts and one Roscosmos cosmonaut, to a hospital in Pensacola, Florida, an unusual move given that the crews typically fly directly to the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, for medical evaluation. In a show of caution, NASA transported the crew to the hospital, releasing three astronauts shortly upon arrival and sending them to Houston. However, they admitted one astronaut, who remained overnight before returning to Houston the following day. NASA never disclosed the reason for the astronaut's stay in the hospital.
Since its debut in 2010, the SpaceX Falcon 9 has proven to be the most reliable rocket in history, introducing the re-usability of the first stage, which has significantly reduced launch costs and increased the pace of space flights. Ever since its introduction in 2019, the Block 5 Falcon 9 has accelerated the pace of space flights. Below is a list of the Block 5 launches.
2019: 10
2020: 26
2021: 31
2022: 60
2023: 91
2024: 103
Three failures this year have grounded the Falcon 9, including a satellite delivery failure due to a second stage fuel leak, a booster landing failure following a successful payload delivery, and an "off nominal deorbit" burn of a second stage following a successful payload delivery, which led to the second stage re-entering the Earth outside of its designated re-entry zone.
NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, while not criticizing SpaceX, urged both SpaceX and NASA to refocus on safety and increase their attention to detail. The concern seems to be based on the operational pace of SpaceX and the age of the hardware it uses. There are currently 16 Falcon 9 rockets that are the workhorses of the SpaceX fleet, with several more under construction. SpaceX only has four Crew Dragons and three Cargo Dragons, all of which are re-usable.
The safety panel's statement suggests that both the wear on the reusable vehicles and, more importantly, an operational schedule similar to Challenger, which encourages adherence to a launch schedule, could have caused the three Falcon 9 incidents that occurred between July and September. This could have compromised the safe operation of the vehicles. Despite not mentioning Challenger, the report appears to mirror the circumstances at NASA that led to the disaster.
The report does not mention the Crew Dragon, but the report and hospitalization suggest that something happened to it during re-entry. This could potentially lead to an overinterpretation of the report. SpaceX ought to reduce its operational speed or increase the quantity of its vehicles to ensure longer inspection intervals between launches, thereby averting a Challenger scenario. SpaceX appears reluctant to overinvest in this, considering the Starship program as its future mainstay.
Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Boeing Starliner, SpaceX is the only company capable of delivering NASA astronauts to space from within the United States. NASA will have to either suspend operations on the International Space Station or revert to relying on the Russians and their Soyuz spacecraft for space travel if a Crew Dragon flight encounters a problem. The U.S. government does not want to do this in the current political climate.
This public report was most likely a plea to SpaceX not to allow its operational tempo to create a situation that forces the U.S. to rely once again on the Russians. Even if there was a minor issue with Crew Dragon, NASA and the government are willing to overlook it and quietly fix it, rather than having to ground the program or force the U.S. to pay the Russians $55+ million per seat.