NATO Responds to Russian Activity in the Baltic Sea

The alliance reacts, kind of, to suspected Russian hybrid warfare

Photo by Miikka Luotio on Unsplash

“Ninety-nine knights of the air

Ride super high-tech jet fighters

Everyone’s a superhero

Everyone’s a ‘Captain Kirk’” – Nena, 99 Red Balloons lyrics

A Russian SA-400 anti-aircraft missile battery targeted a French Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft during a suspected reconnaissance mission in the international airspace in the Baltic region. Although the battery did not fire, the targeting caused an international incident, as NATO and Russia are currently engaged in an action-reaction cycle in the Baltic Sea due to recent events in the region.

Russian and Chinese cargo ships are suspected of intentionally taking recent activities to cut undersea, or submarine, data, communication, and power cables that crisscross the sea floor of the Baltic Sea. NATO and other Western observers attribute these actions, both Russia and China deny, to a hybrid warfare campaign. This accusation of hybrid warfare, which is often hard to prove as intentional acts of a state actor, is out of what the West suspects is Russia’s reaction to the West’s support of Ukraine in its war against Russia. More specifically, the accusation stems from protests in Finland and Sweden, which have joined NATO in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both Sweden and Finland have been on the receiving end of most of the incidents.

NATO launched the Baltic Sentry operation on January 14, 2025, with the aim of curbing hybrid attacks, despite China and Russia's denials. NATO has stated that at least ten ships, maritime patrol aircraft, and a “small fleet” of naval drones will monitor for hybrid warfare activities for at least the next four months. The stated goal of the mission is surveillance and deterrence, according to NATO.

The SA-400 anti-aircraft site targeted a French Intelligence–Surveillance–Reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft, which is part of a group of six aircraft from the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, and the United States. These aircraft not only perform flights over the Baltic Sea, but also conduct most of their patrols in the Baltic region, with their flight patterns running parallel to the land border with the Russian border in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The flights also take place in Poland, close to the Russian Kaliningrad enclave. NATO is also using one of its E-3A Sentry AWAC aircraft to support the mission.

The public statement of Baltic Sentry's purpose is to deter hybrid warfare, and the deployment of naval drones and patrol ships will contribute to this goal. The purpose of all ISR flights that are not over the Baltic Sea remains unclear, as they do not contribute to the deterrence or monitoring of hybrid warfare in the Baltic Sea.

The Russians have been conducting their own ISR activities over the Baltic Sea, so it is not unusual that NATO would respond in kind. By stepping up patrols, Baltic Sentry aims to publicly address the concerns of citizens affected by suspected Russian aggression. Given that the aircraft's sensors can reach deep into Russia, it appears that a significant portion of the exercise is focused on activities unrelated to hybrid warfare, serving as a military show of force along the Russian border. Russia's response involved targeting the French aircraft and possibly demonstrating a threat to breach Polish airspace, which prompted the Norwegian F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft stationed in Poland to scramble. However, no further escalation occurred.

There are concerns regarding the need for a military response to hybrid warfare. NATO has attempted to play a role in using its assets to deter hybrid warfare, but it is ultimately not a military issue for NATO but a law enforcement or diplomatic responsibility. NATO primarily used overland flights along the Russian borders as a military response, seemingly aiming to persuade Russia to scale back its aggressive actions in the Baltic Sea. Given Russia's response to the ISR flights, it's unclear whether this will have the desired effect of ending hybrid warfare. It might be just another escalation of tensions and have no appreciable impact on hybrid warfare.

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References:

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-deploys-warships-naval-drones-baltic-sea-russia-menace-2014430

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/flight-map-shows-intensive-nato-surveillance-along-russias-borders/ar-AA1xjI0V?ocid=BingNewsVerp