“Pakistan and Iran Trade Air Strikes”
“Not the typical Middle East conflict”
January experienced some unusual activity in the Middle East and western Asia that has received little attention when compared to the normal Middle East and western Asia conflict of the Gaza Strip, northern Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. This time around there was the trading of air strikes between Iran and Pakistan but just like the other regional conflict there is a common denominator and that is Iran. That is where the similarity ends because unlike the other conflicts this one is not related at all to the current Israeli – Palestinian conflict.
The start of the current crisis between Pakistan and Iran started on January 3rd, 2024. Iran was commemorating the four-year anniversary of Iranian Quds force commander in Syria Major General Qassem Soleimani death at the hands of a U.S. drone strike at the Baghdad International airport. During the commemoration activities two roadside bombs were remotely detonated 20 minutes apart starting at 3PM killing at least 95 and wounding 211 people in the city of Kerman in southern Iran. This was the deadliest attack in Iranian history. Initially, the Iranian government told the public that the bombing was a result of a U.S. and Israel plot against Iran.
This cover story was told for public consumption and to keep the Iranian anger focused on the Iranian common enemies. In actuality, neither the U.S. or Israel were involved instead the group that was responsible was the Islamic State, or ISIS, who later took credit for the attack. One of the primary assignments to General Soleimani was to prop up the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad who was fighting a civil war against multiple Islamic groups, including the Islamic State. General Soleimani commanded Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force that fought against the various Sunni armed groups trying to overthrow al-Assad including the Islamic state. The attack inside Iran was declared as an act of revenge against Iran and Soleimani for their war against the Islamic State in Syria.
Iran is a predominantly Shia Muslim country and is the most powerful Shia dominated nation in the world, so the attacks seem to be an extension of the Shia – Sunni conflict, and that is true in one respect, but it is distinctly separate of the Iranian and Saudi (Saudi’s are Sunnis) proxy war in Yemen. The difference will most likely mean this Shia – Sunni conflict will not spill into Yemen or the Arabian Peninsula. The Iranians in response launched a series of missile and drone attacks against Sunni rebels in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan in response to the attack in Kerman on January 15th and January 16th with Pakistan only being attacked on January 16th.
Iran has a strong presence in both Syria and Iraq, and both countries are no strangers to air strikes on their territories, so no real protests were expected due to the Iranian actions. The Islamic State also has a presence in both countries. On the other hand, Pakistan, a Sunni majority country, does not have an appreciable ISIS presence in its country. However, the borderlands of Pakistan are the home of a Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adi in southwest Pakistan border with Iran. Jaish al-Adi is considered a terrorist group in Iran and does conduct attacks in Iran, including against Iranian police stations and Revolutionary Guards, and uses the Pakistan border for refuge. The Iranian choosing to attack Jaish a-Adi which only operates in Iran and Pakistan ensured the attack steered clear of directly entangling Iran in the current Middle East conflict.
Pakistan, unlike Iraq and Syria, has not been a target of air strikes in the past and it reacted harshly to the Iranian attack. The Pakistani foreign ministry claimed the Iranian attack killed two children and called it an unprovoked violation of is sovereign air space and it recalled its ambassador from Iran and cut off all high-level contacts with Iran as well. The foreign ministry also stated that it reserved the right to strike back at Iran which it did so on Thursday January 19th using drones, rockets and aircraft delivered munitions against the Baloch Liberation Front operating in Iran that has launched attacks in the past against the Pakastani government. The result of the air strike was 9 people being killed.
Iran and Pakistan typically have friendly relations despite the Shia and Sunni rivalry. Pakistan is not part of the Middle East but is in west Asia with a common border with Iran. So, it was unusual that Iran would choose to attack Pakistan but if it wanted to ensure it steered clear of the current conflicts in the Middle East region an attack on Pakistan would be able to successfully do that. What was also unusual about the Iranian decision is that it was an example of a non-nuclear armed state attacking a nuclear armed state. It is unusual that nuclear armed states are attacked in a first strike.
Pakistan is estimated to have 170 nuclear weapons that can be delivered by medium and short-range missiles and by some of its fighter aircraft. Pakistan does have the capability to launch a nuclear strike against Tehran if it chose so. Pakistan also has a more powerful conventional military, so it does not have to resort to nuclear weapons. Pakistan, unlike Iran, is not involved in proxy wars, so it can concentrate all of its more powerful military resources against Iran which Iran’s weaker military, that is stretched throughout the Middle East and is providing weapons to Russia cannot equal Pakistan’s military stature.
Pakistan is also in the middle of the presidential election campaign with an election scheduled for February 8th and Pakistan has a less stable government than Iran, so Pakistan most likely wants a quick exit ramp from this conflict even with its military edge over Iran. So, the question is why Iran decided to attack Pakistan and why did Pakistan respond when it is in neither’s interest to risk a war. The Pakastani side, it was most likely an easy decision, it believed it had to respond to the aggression, its more capable military could move up the escalatory ladder in a way Iran could not, and Pakistan with close ties to China, who also has close ties to Iran, could help defuse the situation before the conflict gets out of control. It could show resolve with a reasonable expectation of a quick resolution.
The Iranian’s position is more complex, and it is more likely that the Iran Revolutionary Guard chose revenge against Jaish al-Adi attacks. The Revolutionary Guard most likely chose its own targets to attack outside of the Iranian civilian government influence, since the government would have realized such an attack on Pakistan had no upside for Iran except for the revenge satisfaction of the Revolutionary Guard. It is the unusual nature of the power structure of Iran between the government, the Ayatollahs control of the Revolutionary Guards conducting actions that are in conflict with each other.
Ultimately the two sides decided to deescalate the situation and chose to work, at least in words, to coordinate to stop cross border actions by militant groups. Iran can ill afford a war on its eastern border when its focus is on the current conflicts and would need to ensure that revolutionary segments of its Revolutionary Guards do not create a self-inflicted crisis that the Iranian state cannot afford to get involved while supporting its proxy war activities.
References:
https://amp.dw.com/en/iran-deadly-blasts-near-grave-of-slain-qassem-soleimani/a-67882464