Russia - North Korea Pact: How to Deprioritize
Ending the Ukraine War can restore a sense of "normalcy" on the Korean Peninsula
Was a destabilized Korean Peninsula on anyone’s bingo card when the Ukraine War started in February 2022? Like so many events of the Ukraine War—such as Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Switzerland debating giving up its strict neutrality, and most of Western Europe finally fulfilling their NATO defense commitments—they were not predicted to unfold as Russian tanks, missiles, and aircraft crossed over into Ukraine. The Korean Peninsula can also be added to this conversation. The Ukraine War did not end the serenity between the two countries north and south of the Demilitarized Zone; rather, it transformed it from a quiet tension to high levels of acrimony. Now, the Korean conflict, in a metaphorical sense, reaches all the way to Europe. North Korean troops are fighting Ukrainians in the Russian Kursk Oblast, and their artillery shells are landing in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, South Korean main battle tanks, manufactured in both South Korea and Poland, and their artillery systems are arming NATO countries for a potential European war. Although Korea's involvement in the war was not intentional, it was inevitable and serves as another reason to expedite the resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
Since the aborted declaration of martial law and the unsuccessful impeachment of its president in early December, South Korea has been in a state of turmoil. South Korea’s influence has increased as it is considered a key ally in the “rules-based order” of the West. South Korea serves as an immediate counterweight to North Korean ambitions, is a NATO partner as part of the Indo-Pacific 4 nations (South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia), and is part of a growing U.S.-led strategy of building alliances in the western Pacific to counter China's aggressive territorial claims in the region. Its economic strength, production capacity, and advanced technologies play an important role in the region and contribute significantly to countering China's influence. The ability of South Korea to stabilize its political turmoil is crucial, and with North Korea serving as a key Russian ally in the Ukraine War, this task will become increasingly challenging for the country.
Russia has raised many "red lines" for the Western supporters of Ukraine to not cross. The issuance of these "red lines" has prompted a pause in the West, as they were hesitant to escalate their relationship with Russia. The West crossed the red lines as the war dragged on, but when they didn't receive the anticipated response from Russia, they mistook it for a bluff and proceeded to disregard further Russian "red lines." Russia, though, did not ignore the West's flagrant disregard of its red lines and has used its influence to destabilize and undermine regions and institutions considered important to the West in retaliation. North Korea, in particular, was more than willing to play a disruptive role in support of the Russian cause.
In order to justify the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact. North Korea has provided millions of artillery rounds and hundreds of missiles, dedicating wartime production to Russia and sending up to four army engineering brigades, in addition to the 11,000 combat troops sent to Kursk. In exchange, North Korea has received sanction relief from the Russians, who used their Security Council veto to end sanction monitoring and have provided energy aid that also skirted sanctions. However, the signing of a cooperation agreement between Russia and North Korea for both space and "peaceful atomic energy" is more concerning for the long-term security of the Korean Peninsula, as it implies that North Korea can anticipate receiving technical knowledge from Russia that will significantly influence its missile and nuclear weapons programs.
It is in the best interest of the U.S. and the West to resolve the Ukraine War as quickly as possible before North Korea and Russia can make significant inroads in this latest cooperation pact. Russia is well aware that this agreement would cause significant issues for the West and South Korea when trying to maintain stability in the region. The Russian economy is considered a wartime economy, and a peace in Ukraine would force the Russian economy to go through the spasms as it moves from wartime to a peacetime economy. Ending the hostilities in Ukraine would cause economic pain for Russia, as is typical for wartime economies transitioning to peacetime, and it would result in de-prioritizing North Korea's relationship with Russia, as it will no longer be as critical. North Korea won't have anything to offer Russia during the peacetime transition, and it's probable that Russia will relegate the relationship to a secondary role. The sooner Ukraine achieves peace, the faster the North Korean relationship undergoes a downgrade, and this downgrade must occur before North Korea can gain and utilize Russian nuclear and rocket expertise.
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Reference:
https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/can-there-be-a-settlement-on-the-korean-peninsula-without-an-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/