“Sweden’s NATO Partnership”
“Sweden moves closer to being accepted into NATO”
It has been almost a year since Sweden and Finland had submitted applications for NATO membership. Finland was almost immediately accepted in April 2023, but Sweden has still not been accepted. The NATO requirement is that all NATO countries must agree to add a new nation, but Turkey and Hungary are withholding acceptance of Sweden. Despite this delay, Sweden and NATO have continued down the path of integrating Sweden ahead of what is expected to be the final acceptance from the two hold outs.
This week Turkish President Erdogan gave his assurances that he now approves the acceptance of Sweden into the alliance, but it still must be voted on by Turkey’s legislature, but approval is expected with Erdogan’s support. Turkey was opposed because it believed that Sweden was harboring what Turkey considers terrorists and it objected to Sweden’s past accusations of Turkey conducting human rights abuses. These issues have been cleared and now Erdogan expects the U.S. Senate to approve the $20 billion purchase of 40 new F-16s and upgrade kits for existing F-16s that have been held up until Turkey approves Sweden’s NATO membership. Quid pro quo.
Hungary continues to hold out, but the Swedish foreign ministry believes that as soon as Turkey approves that Hungary will approve. Hungary is holding out over Sweden’s past criticism of Hungary’s ruling party of undemocratic behavior. Unlike the idea of NATO membership for Ukraine, which Hungary strenuously opposes, the issue with Sweden is more of a display of displeasure from Hungary. The line from Hungary is that they are in no hurry to take up debate on Sweden’s membership. The likely vote of approval may not happen until early 2024 though the Sweden’s foreign ministry is hopeful as soon as Turkey parliament approves Hungary will approve quickly thereafter.
These delays have not stopped NATO from preparing for Sweden’s acceptance. Sweden participated in the NATO foreign minister summit in November. This week Sweden and the U.S. signed a bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement that allows the U.S. to have access to 17 Swedish bases which include 4 in the north near the Arctic region. This will allow the U.S. to have access to train, conduct exercises, deploy forces, and pre-position equipment in Sweden. This is the first agreement of this type between the two nations but will require approval of 2/3 of Sweden’s parliament which is not expected until late 2024. The U.S. being the most powerful NATO member this is a significant step for Sweden’s NATO integration.
The decision of Sweden to join NATO was publicly stated as a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sweden does not have a border with Russia but has had encounters with Russia and Soviet navy and air forces in the Baltic Sea in the past. Despite this public statement, Sweden appears not to have an immediate defense need though the Russian northern border does border its Scandinavian neighbors of Norway and Finland to its east and west and any Russian move would involve Sweden even without NATO membership. This is mostly where Sweden sees benefits of being a NATO member. Sweden will get the security benefit of operating more frequently in the Arctic without having to develop new capabilities internally but can rely on NATO capabilities and partnerships to operate more effectively.
NATO presence in the Arctic is important for early warning systems, a presence for monitoring and encountering transiting military aircraft and submarines. The region is also rich in resources and more and more it appears that soft deterrence must be replaced with a hard deterrence or a at least a hard deterrence capability that can rapidly deploy assets. Sweden is also building an Arctic satellite launch complex which will apply more security importance on the Swedish north. NATO benefits because of Sweden’s strategic location in the north and the Baltic as well as giving depth to the Finland and Norwegian fronts that face Russia. Sweden also has a sophisticated defense industry and armed forces that will immediately benefit and enhance NATO capability.
The long-term benefits to both Sweden and NATO to have Sweden join the alliance are apparent. The reasoning of using the Russian – Ukraine war seems dubious, at least in the short term. Sweden and Finland would not have joined NATO if it were not for Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is a cost that Russia is responsible for due to its decision to invade Ukraine. Though in the long-term, the concern in the Baltic states of a Russian takeover is more of a concern to Sweden than the conflict in Ukraine.
NATO has assumed an aggressive posture towards Russia, even prior to the Ukraine invasion with its reckless flirtation of the proposal of Ukraine NATO membership, so a military alliance with both Sweden and Finland as members adds strategic pressure to Russia but also adds pressure to NATO which now has a longer front to cover. The NATO benefits of turning the Baltic Sea into a “NATO lake” and a NATO continuous arc of territory in the Arctic outweigh the downside of their membership and unlike other questionable countries added to NATO, Sweden and Finland make the alliance stronger to a benefit of all.
References:
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/sweden-and-us-signs-defense-cooperation-agreement
https://www.gzeromedia.com/amp/sweden-is-confident-it-will-finally-become-a-nato-member-2666408326