“Swiss Report Recommends the End of Strict Neutrality”
“Politicians will have to debate if neutrality is what is best for Switzerland’s future”
It is not an understatement that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shook western political and military structures and created a new sense of urgency over European security questions. The majority of that focus has been on NATO, as the Ukraine War has led to increased defense spending across all NATO countries, with 23 of the 32 countries meeting the defense expenditure target of 2% of GDP. This has resulted in NATO defense budgets increasing from $1.18 trillion in 2021, the last full year before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to a record $1.47 trillion in 2024, an increase of 24.6%. The biggest shift in European attitudes towards defense spending and posture occurred when traditionally neutral European powers like Finland and Sweden abandoned their neutrality and joined NATO, citing the Russian invasion. This abandonment of neutrality is now spreading to Switzerland, as it also considers abandoning 500 years of neutrality and aligning itself with the West in no uncertain terms.
Although the Swiss government and political parties have not agreed to ending its traditional neutral role, the open debate in Switzerland represents a paradigm shift in Europe. In the context of 500 years of neutrality, the shift in the debate has been swift but in fact has been a slow move towards it as the events of the Ukraine War have unfolded. Switzerland has been a supporter of western-led sanctions against Russia, as it did not want to run afoul of the European Union or the United States by ignoring the sanctions. This does not imply that Switzerland is blindly compliant with the West, as it refused to participate in the G7 decision to use the profits from frozen Russian assets in the West to extend loan guarantees to Ukraine.
Under pressure, Switzerland has agreed to adjust its policies to be more pro-western and less neutral by supporting the sanctions against Russia. Switzerland agreed to host and lend its reputation when it agreed to the "Summit on Peace" in mid-June 2024. However, these talks were not true peace talks but rather a list of Ukrainian demands prior to the commencement of peace talks and therefore not a blueprint for actual peace talks. These talks were widely mocked by much of the world as more show than substance, as Russia was not even invited to attend peace talks in a war in which they were the primary aggressor. Russia accused Switzerland of giving up its neutral status, and Switzerland was nothing more than a partisan supporter of the West's campaign against Russia. Although the Russian statement is exaggerated, it does hold some validity, as Switzerland naively consented to host peace talks with a significant flaw that they should have known would harm their standing as a neutral mediator.
The debate on neutrality goes beyond actions such as participation in sanctions and a peace conference; it has also extended to policy debates within the Swiss government. On Thursday, August 29th, a group of Swiss experts released a report to the Swiss government, asserting that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the European security environment, necessitating a debate on Swiss neutrality and potential revisions to its neutrality laws. The report summarized that Switzerland should work on a “common defense capability” with NATO and the European Union and made suggestions to achieve these goals.
The Ukraine War has demonstrated changes to warfare, mainly in the use of medium- and intermediate-range missiles, drones, and the advent of hypersonic missiles that require much of Europe to rethink their security. The traditional geographic security of a small country nestled in the rugged Alps may no longer be sufficient to protect it from what it perceives as an enemy: Russian President Vladimir Putin, his demonstrated missile capabilities in Ukraine, and the threats he has directed towards the West.
The German-led European Sky Shield Initiative, or ESSI, has sparked debate over Switzerland's potential membership (read more here European Missile Defense). ESSI is a non-NATO program that aims to provide missile defense to Europe outside of NATO military operations. The reality of modern warfare, as seen in Ukraine, underscores the significance of missile defense, prompting Switzerland to consider safeguarding its infrastructure beyond its traditional armed neutrality. To join the ESSI, Switzerland would need an agreement with Germany and, most likely, a future EU agreement.
Defense procurement and arms sales are other items included in the report about the reconsideration of strict neutrality. Despite the legitimate nature of the issue, some perceive it as a cynical attempt to prioritize financial gain over the principle of neutrality. NATO countries' defense spending has increased by nearly 25% as a result of the war, and this figure does not account for all the expenditures associated with the Ukraine War. Switzerland has an advanced arms industry, but Swiss law forbids the sale of Swiss weapons to countries that are at war. Swiss arms contracts, similar to many others worldwide, mandate that customers must obtain Swiss approval before transferring their weapons to another party. Switzerland, in compliance with its neutrality laws, has denied the transfer of Swiss arms to Ukraine. Ukraine is requesting the German-made MANTIS air defense system, which Germany is willing to supply. However, the system's use of Swiss-made programmable ammunition prevents its sale to Ukraine.
Swiss neutrality laws have resulted in a 27% reduction in Swiss arms sales, and they are expected to have an even greater future effect on countries that wish to send more arms to Ukraine. The effect is that countries that at one time were doing business with Swiss arms manufacturers will look to move transactions elsewhere to manufacturers that do not have such strict arms transfer stipulations. This puts Switzerland's once 1 billion euro defense industry in jeopardy. Neutrality laws also present Switzerland with the potential loss of revenue from supplying artillery ammunition to European Union countries as the EU increases its ammunition production to replenish long-neglected stocks and bolster the war in Ukraine. The cynical view is that neutrality is costing the Swiss economy money through missed arms sales and risking security by not allowing it to pursue joining European missile defense.
The final factor in the neutrality debate is the confirmed opening of a NATO liaison office in Geneva, Switzerland. NATO states that the intent of the office is to facilitate communication between the United Nations organizations in Geneva and would operate in the same way as NATO liaison offices that communicate with the U.N. offices in Vienna and New York City. The office, which will only have one permanent NATO employee, will be located not only near the U.N. office but also in a part of the city that is home to 180 international ambassadors and 750 NGOs. Switzerland cites the benefits of hosting a NATO office and demonstrates its willingness to host the largest military alliance organization in the world. However, Switzerland will find it harder to claim neutrality with this office, even if it does not change its neutrality laws.
The Ukraine War has brought Europe together in a manner unseen since the Cold War, likely reaching its highest levels of tension since 1983's Able Archer exercises (read at Able Archer 83). The threat, not only from Russia but also from technology, has forced a debate within Switzerland about its strict neutrality. It is debatable whether this is the greatest threat to Switzerland's 500 years of neutrality, especially since it was able to maintain that neutrality through both world wars and the Cold War. So why is the Russian threat greater now than it was at other crisis points in history? Swiss politicians will debate this hotly contested point, but perhaps the war and changing times are pushing the idea that abandoning neutrality is the right course. The global leader of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, Jean-Marc Rickli, stated that “the report makes it clear that Switzerland is a Western country and therefore supports Western values” and makes the case that Switzerland’s future lies not in neutrality but collective participation in at least defense-related matters. The Swiss people will have to decide if this is a valid reason to end a tradition.
If you like my content, please consider becoming a Substack subscriber to Pegasus Research or support me through Patreon.
https://www.patreon.com/PegasusResearch
References:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293301/combined-defense-expenditures-nato/