“The West Philippine Sea Newsletter: Volume 9”
“China and Philippines reach an agreement at the Second Thomas Shoal, the U.S. comes bearing gifts and missile brinkmanship”
Foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, held a meeting in Laos last week and invited foreign ministers of the United States, China, Russia, Japan, India, and Australia. The main focus of the meeting was to address the continuing civil war in Myanmar and the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. The issues in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea were primarily focused on China and the Philippines. While China attempted to present itself as reasonable on the world stage, it did not show any indication that it was willing to change its position of trying to intimidate the Philippines.
The most notable change in the Chinese position was an apparent compromise on the Philippine resupply missions to the Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal. Public knowledge does not reveal the details of the agreement, but it does reveal that the Philippines can either resupply the marines on the ship or conduct a medical evacuation from the ship, provided they notify the Chinese of their intentions. This appears to be a compromise by both parties, as the Philippine government stated it would not submit notification of its intent to resupply the Sierra Madre. The Chinese assured that their coast guard would not interfere with the completion of the missions. After this agreement, they have already completed one mission to the Sierra Madre without any incidents.
The agreement demonstrates that the Philippines is going out of its way to avoid a conflict with China by compromising that it would contact China prior to any mission to access its sovereign territory. The Sierra Madre is a commissioned ship in the Philippine Navy, while the Second Thomas Shoal is in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone in the West Philippine Sea. The Philippine government, in an attempt to deescalate the situation, is willing to limit its access to its sovereign territory and its internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone. In exchange, all the Chinese have to do is not attack, with ax-wielding coast guardsmen, water cannons, or boats ramming Philippine vessels performing legal activity in accordance with maritime law.
China presented this so-called Chinese compromise ahead of the ASEAN meeting in Laos, portraying it as a peaceful move to garner as much positive press as possible. However, the Chinese government is telling a different story to its allies and domestic audience. The Chinese government has asserted its sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea, declared that it will not permit any construction supplies to the Sierra Madre, which is in dire need of repairs, and stated that the Philippines has committed to removing the Sierra Madre in the future and establishing no garrison or permanent structure in its place. This is a statement that the Philippine government has denied. Although the details of the agreement remain undisclosed, it is improbable that the Philippines would relinquish its territorial rights in accordance with international law.
Antony Blinken, the United States Secretary of State, is in the Indo-Pacific to attend the ASEAN conference and visit several countries in the region. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin joined him on the visit to the Philippines, where they both visited their Philippine counterparts, Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo and Secretary of Defense Gilbert Teodoro Jr., in Manila for the 2+2 conference on July 30th. There was also a separate meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The meeting included the United States granting a $500 million military aid package to the Philippines. $125 million of the aid is to upgrade Philippine military bases that the government agreed to allow U.S. forces to operate as part of a 2014 agreement between the two nations. The remaining funds are earmarked for external military capability modernization and the building of an intelligence sharing infrastructure with the Philippines to secure U.S. intelligence shared with the Philippines, including satellite imagery.
The U.S. has not equipped the Philippines with high-tech weapons in the past, with the reason being that the country did not have the necessary intelligence safeguards to allow the legal sharing of American advanced weapons. Building an intelligence infrastructure will facilitate the delivery of more advanced weapons to the Philippines. The Philippines has recently received BrahMos long-range supersonic cruise missiles from India, and it is expected that the Philippines will attempt to receive long-range U.S. missiles and potentially a sophisticated air defense system.
The United States did deploy a Typhon missile battery in April north of Luzon as part of a joint military exercise called Salaknib 2024. The Philippine armed forces trained with the missiles as part of their interoperability goals with the U.S. military, despite never firing them. The exercise ended in April, but the United States never withdrew the missiles. C-17 or C-5 transport aircraft can deploy the mobile Typhon missile system anywhere in the world. The Typhon system is a ground-based version of the U.S. Navy's vertical launch system, which is on its warships. The Typhon can fire the SM-6 multipurpose missile and the Tomahawk cruise missile. The Mako hypersonic missile will eventually equip it.
This missile system, deployed in the Philippines, will have the range to attack targets in and around Taiwan and Chinese east coast cities and facilities. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Philippines about the U.S. deployment, calling for their withdrawal. He also warned the Philippines not to deploy their own missiles or allow the deployment of U.S. missiles on their territory because it would force China to respond and create a regional arms race to introduce long-range missiles into the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Mr. Yi failed to acknowledge that China already possesses an arsenal of over 300 medium- and intermediate-range missiles, about 300 deployed cruise missiles capable of attacking ground and naval targets in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines, and 1,200 short-range missiles ready for launch in and around Taiwan. China also stated plans to arm ICBMs with conventional warheads capable of attacking Hawaii, Alaska, and anywhere in the U.S.
This is a destabilizing policy because the U.S. and its allies will not know if an ICBM launched from China following a ballistic missile flight pattern is nuclear or conventional and could initiate a nuclear counterforce strike. China, making public statements about its ability to destroy U.S. Navy aircraft carriers if they attempt to enter the western Pacific to defend Taiwan, has already deployed missiles to the region.
The competition for "hearts and minds" in Asia between China, the U.S., and its allies has adopted a Cold War tone, with both parties attempting to convince the countries in the region of the righteousness of their respective causes. For their part, the Philippines has successfully used a public relations battle against China to influence the perception of China among most ASEAN nations, as evidenced by its documented aggressive actions against the country. For its part, the U.S. is actively promoting its alliances in the region, including the Philippines, in an effort to counter China's potential new arms race and regain some of the influence it has lost due to China's growing military and economic power. Neither the U.S. nor China's policy is the best policy for maintaining stability in the region, but it is the policy that both sides have adopted.
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References:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/world/asia/us-philippines-military-aid-china.html