“The West Philippine Sea Newsletter: Volume 8”
“China attempts to intimidate the Philippines, Japan and Philippines sign security agreement and the U.S. sends mixed messages about de-escalation”
Another week passed with no major clashes in the West Philippine Sea, but diplomatic maneuvering in front of the world press and military intimidation highlighted the situation with the Chinese are attempting to intimidate their regional neighbors, but especially the Philippines. The Philippines also continued its media campaign to highlight the abuses and illegal behavior of the Chinese government and to try to avoid steps that China could use to provoke an international incident. This does not mean that the Philippines is backing off their legal sovereignty claims in the region and continues to pursue regional relations to bolster its position against an aggressive China. The trend in the West Philippine Sea indicates China's increasing aggression, aimed at intimidating regional countries into submitting to its demands in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Philippines is attempting to prevent this escalation without relinquishing its internationally recognized sovereign rights.
China has relocated its main intimidation tactics to the Escoda Shoal. In May and June, the Philippines discovered evidence of China attempting to build an artificial island using ground-up coral as one of the building materials. This has been a common practice for China in the region, as it has built artificial islands in the South China Sea to bolster its illegal sovereignty claims and militarize the region. In response, the Philippines deployed its largest coast guard ship, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, and two smaller vessels to maintain a constant presence to keep the Chinese from resuming island building at the Escoda Shoal, which is part of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ. The Philippines Justice Department was also preparing a legal case against China, citing its actions in building the island and the environmental damage caused by its destruction of coral for building materials.
The Chinese responded this week by deploying their largest coast guard vessel, called the "Monster." This 12,000-ton vessel, designated CCG-5901, is three times larger than the Teresa Magbanua. The “Monster” dropped anchor at the Escoda Shoal in an apparent attempt to intimidate the Philippines by deploying a vessel that is much larger than the largest Philippine Coast Guard vessel, and when it dropped anchor, it did so 800 yards, or 731 meters, from the Teresa Magbanua. The Chinese Foreign Ministry made the statement that its police and military were enforcing the law in their waters. The Philippines replied that the Chinese act was a show of force to intimidate them, but that they would not give into intimidation and would not pull out of the shoal.
The Chinese, attempting to make "tit for tat" claims of environmental damage to the Escoda Shoal, have accused the Philippines of damaging the coral of the Second Thomas Shoal when they chose to ground the Sierra Madre at the shoal in 1999, and have ignored Chinese demands to remove it. The Philippines responded by claiming that China, through the creation of about thirty artificial outposts throughout the South China Sea, has caused damage to the coral and sea floor. China created most of these artificial outposts using ground-up coral. This was a weak attempt by China to deflect by accusing the Philippines of the actions it has been taking, but on a much larger scale in both the West Philippine Sea and the South China Sea.
The Philippines also needed to evacuate a service member from the Sierra Madre for medical reasons. The Philippines were successful in evacuating the service member and getting them to a hospital, where they are in stable condition. The Philippines claimed that the Chinese Coast Guard tried to hinder the evacuation attempt, without providing further details. However, the Chinese Coast Guard has been relentlessly patrolling in the Second Thomas Shoal, the grounding location of the Sierra Madre. This is the same location where the June 17th incident occurred, in which the Chinese subdued Philippine service personnel attempting to reach the Sierra Madre and damaged two of their rubber boats by a Chinese boarding party of ax, knife, and spear-wielding coast guardsmen.
The evacuation at the Sierra Madre occurred less than a week after the Chinese Coast Guard was documented attempting to obstruct the Philippine Coast Guard from rescuing two fishermen at the Panatag Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. As a result, the Chinese Coast Guard has demonstrated and documented an effort to prevent the rendering of assistance to non-Chinese citizens in the region. In the latest incident at the Second Thomas Shoal, China did not deny attempting to stop the evacuation, and its Foreign Ministry stated that it would allow vital supplies and the evacuation of personnel from the Sierra Madre if the Philippines notified China first. This is an apparent step of de-escalation from China, but the concession's subtleties are that the Philippines must ask permission from China to gain access to its sovereign territory.
The Philippines and Japan convened the 2 + 2 meeting, a gathering of their respective civilian defense and foreign ministers, further undermining China's demands for no formation of alliances in the western Pacific and bilateral resolution of all disputes. However, China does not adhere to these demands, as evidenced by its participation in this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting and BRICS, both of which it helped establish, and its deployment of a small military contingent to participate in "anti-terrorism" exercises in Belarus, close to Poland's NATO border. The result of the Philippine and Japanese meeting was the signing of the reciprocal access agreement, which allows both countries to temporarily deploy their armed forces to each other’s countries. The Japanese and Filipino representatives provided a joint statement that the international community needs to speak out on the importance of international rules-based order and the rule of law regarding access to the seas. The statement clearly targeted China and its illegal international claims. Once both countries' legislatures ratify it, the agreement will go into effect.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered the Philippine military to de-escalate tensions without compromising its sovereign rights. Chief General Romeo Brawner of the Philippine Armed Forces acknowledged the order to the press, but did not provide further details. It is easy to determine that the Philippines is not the aggressor in the region, so the statement from President Marcos can be considered a concession to pacify China. Did the request to de-escalate, or at least sound conciliatory, result from the growing public concern in the U.S. Defense Department that the current trajectory in the West Philippine Sea is one that can lead to conflict? The U.S. has publicly supported the Philippines in its legal claims, has publicly stated its intention to honor the defense agreement with the Philippines, and has publicly stated the same to China. However, it has also signaled the need for a de-escalation, a de-escalation in which the U.S. will not take the lead, instead leaving it to the Philippines and Japan.
The United States' mixed messaging has put the Philippines in a difficult position. It has announced publicly that it wants to avoid an escalation with China and ordered its military to de-escalate tensions in the region. This is primarily a public relations strategy to show that the Philippines is striving to prevent a war with China, a sentiment that the U.S. shares. However, it's important to note that China may perceive this as a weakness in both the Philippines' and the U.S.'s resolve. China is likely to intensify its intimidation tactics against the Philippines, rather than seizing the chance to de-escalate the situation. China is utilizing the space the Philippines provided for de-escalation to intensify its pressure on the Philippines for further unilateral concessions.
The Philippines continues to resolutely assert its sovereign claims in the West Philippine Sea. It continues to pursue a legal claim for China's environmental damage in the Escoda Shoal, which has led to a weak non-legal counterclaim against the Philippines in the Second Thomas Shoal. China has implemented a strategy of intimidation in the region, aiming to capitalize on the de-escalation messaging in the Philippines. It is prepared to assume the risk that any incident resulting from its intimidation could serve as a rationale for using force or threatening force to pressure the Philippines into further concessions to prevent escalation. This, in turn, could lead to China intensifying its efforts to bolster its illegal claims. The Philippines continues to press the successful strategy of fostering alliances as it continues to formalize its security relationship with Japan. The U.S. and the Philippines should follow a policy not to concede to China in the region, because a war with the Philippines is not a war that the Chinese want to fight. The Philippines has demonstrated that it does not want a war with China, but it should not surrender its ultimate strength, as China is not in a position to successfully operate in the West Philippine Sea against a determined opponent in the medium term.
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References:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/china-philippines-spar-over-coral-damage-in-disputed-waters
https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/china-philippines-pledge-to-de-escalate-tensions-in-south-china-sea/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-04/philippines-demanding-1-million-from-china-over-june-sea-clash