“The West Philippine Sea Newsletter”
“Volume 1: Chinese threats to arrest Philippine citizens and illegal wiretaps”
After the Philippine rights group Atin Ito penetrated the makeshift blockade of the Chinese Coast Guard and Maritime Militia in mid-May at the Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese threatened harsh action against any future incursions. The Chinese Communist Party and the Philippine government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are in an escalation cycle, as actions in the West Philippine Sea show no sign of stopping or de-escalating. As judged by international courts, the Philippines actions within the West Philippine Sea are legal, whereas the Chinese claims of the South China Sea and the Nine Dash Line are illegal. Despite this ruling, the Chinese continue to state their claims that the entire South China Sea is sovereign territory and that the Philippines, along with many other countries, are violating China’s sovereignty. China has chosen to use its military and economic strength to intimidate countries into either compliance or, at the very least, silence, so as not to become the focus of Chinese ire. The Philippines have chosen neither, and as a result, they are facing Chinese ire, but they have continued to be undeterred by the Chinese threats.
A contingent of at least twenty Chinese ships, including eight Chinese Coast Guard ships, one People's Liberation Army Navy ship, and at least ten Maritime Militia ships, met Atin Ito, whose English translation means "it is ours," as it launched a mission to the Scarborough Shoal. The Chinese naval force was able to block the main Atin Ito flotilla, but the group launched an advance team that was able to penetrate the Chinese effort to deny access to the shoal. This was a great embarrassment to the Chinese Communist Party, but it was also a public relations and moral victory as they delivered supplies of food and diesel to 144 Philippine fishermen who consistently face harassment from the Chinese ships patrolling the Scarborough Shoal.
The Scarborough Shoal is in the Philippines internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ; thus, Chinese actions in the shoal are illegal. China disregards this ruling, clinging to a tenuous historical claim that didn't exist until China emerged as a major economic force, expanding its trade across the South China Sea's sea lanes, and discovering gas and oil deposits. The Chinese claims are based on their own interests in using their economic and military power to dominate the region, whereas the historic claim is a concocted cover story for the Chinese Communist Party and its supporters. The Philippines, on the other hand, is making its claim based on international maritime law and has designated the part of the South China Sea that contains the Philippines’ EEZ as the West Philippine Sea.
The Atin Ito's success in the Scarborough Shoal has sparked a furious response and threat from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The Chinese government authorized the Chinese Coast Guard to arrest any "foreigner" in the South China Sea who violated its sovereign waters shortly after the incident. In China, the punishment is sixty days of imprisonment without trial, with the policy going into effect in June. If the Chinese follow through with this threat in the Scarborough Shoal, it would be another violation of international law, as only the Philippines have jurisdiction in this region (outside of some extraordinary circumstances such as piracy).
This Philippine government responded to China's threat of arresting its citizens in its EEZ. President Marcos has condemned it, and Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo stated that China’s threat is not consistent with international law. Commodore Roy Trinidad, a spokesman for the Philippine Navy, denounced the Chinese threat to arrest Philippine citizens, whom China has labeled as "trespassers". Commodore Trinidad reinforced the statement by President Marcos that China’s threat is unacceptable. He stated that the government and navy are opposed to China's arrest of Philippine citizens in the West Philippine Sea and would not allow it. It is unclear how either the Philippines or the Chinese will attempt to enforce both of their declarations.
Multiple reports of pipes spotted in the shoal during low tide also resulted from Atin Ito's mission. Speculations suggest that the Chinese may have installed infrastructure that enables them to maneuver underwater without detection, yet confirmation of this claim remains elusive. Under most circumstances, any Chinese construction in the West Philippine Sea would also be illegal under international law. Commodore Trinidad stated that the Philippine Navy would investigate but did not state whether it would involve sending ships or aircraft to investigate and risk a confrontation, or if it would request satellite support from its allies, most likely Japan or the United States.
The Chinese released a tape of a conversation between a Chinese diplomat and a Philippine admiral over a “new model” of how to manage the issues around the Second Thomas Shoal. This was perceived as a "gentleman's agreement" between the Philippines and China, which the Philippines later broke. It was an attempt to cast the Philippines' image as duplicitous in its international relations. The Chinese embassy in Manila produced the tape through a wiretap, a violation of diplomatic protocols and the Filipino Anti-Wire Tapping Act. The Chinese release of the tape has led to an investigation into the wiretap and the details surrounding the agreement.
The probe focuses on the circumstances surrounding the conversation, not on whether the Filipinos will concur with the contents of the wiretap. The Philippine government has confirmed that the claimed agreement had never reached the Philippine government's cabinet level, so it could never have become an unofficial policy of the Philippine government. No treaty between the Philippines and China ever included it, so it is not a legally binding agreement. The Chinese breach of Philippine law and diplomatic protocols has led to some calls to punish the Chinese embassy, up to and including the ambassador's expulsion.
The events of the past couple of weeks are part of the escalating action-reaction cycle that continues between the two countries. Should the Philippines legitimately expel any Chinese embassy staff, China would likely respond in kind. The more dangerous issue is the Chinese threat to arrest trespassing “foreigners” in the South China Sea and the vow of the Philippine government not to allow this to happen. President Marco's response earlier this year raises concerns about the threats. The president stated that a Philippine citizen's death at the hands of the Chinese enforcing their illegal claims in the West Philippine Sea could trigger the U.S. defense agreement with the Philippines.
Beijing is consternated by the Philippines' strong response to China's threats, as they do not want to appear weak. They fear that backing down from the Philippines could lead to the collapse of their other illegal claims in the South China Sea. However, a war with the Philippines is not a battle the Chinese want to fight now or in the future. The Philippines maintains a strong position against China and continues to leverage its advantages against a larger adversary that is failing to intimidate the Philippines.
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Reference:
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/907604/ph-china-arrest-west-philippine-sea/story/
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/5/22/legarda-to-guo-convince-us-you-re-filipino-2047