Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly unveiled his Ukraine Victory Plan on October 16th before the Ukrainian parliament. The plan has five parts and three undisclosed secret protocols. The five known parts are below:
The "Victory Plan" for Ukraine:
Part 1: Ukraine should receive an immediate invitation to join NATO.
Part 2: Provide Ukraine with more long-range weapons and remove usage restrictions.
Part 3: The West deploys armed forces in Ukraine to prevent further Russian aggression.
Part 4: Western investment in Ukrainian natural resources and enterprises.
Part 5: Integrating Ukraine into Western security to ensure post-war security
French President Emmanuel Macron fully embraced the plan, publicly declaring that he would launch a campaign to persuade Ukraine's supporters to adopt it. This plan closely aligns with his proposals, which he began to strongly advocate in public starting in late 2023.
Today, October 24th, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz threw cold water on the Victory Plan when he spoke to the German public broadcast ZDF. The first point of the plan is for Ukraine to receive an immediate invitation to join NATO, and Chancellor Scholz dismissed that point in no uncertain terms by saying, “A country at war absolutely cannot become a member of NATO." Chancellor Scholz went on to add, “Everyone knows that; there is no disagreement on this subject.”
Chancellor Scholz effectively halted the plan by emphasizing that Article 10 and the 1995 Study on Enlargement clearly prohibit extending NATO membership. All NATO countries have unanimously agreed to this point, either through a vote or by accepting it as a condition of NATO membership after 1995. To amend Article 10, the unanimous approval of all NATO countries is required. Germany's public opposition to the idea suggests that there is no possibility of amending Article 10 to facilitate Ukraine's membership.
Germany is not the only country publicly opposing Ukraine's membership during its ongoing war. The United States, Hungary, and Slovak Republic are all public in their opposition, and Spain, Belgium, and Slovenia are opposed but not public about their opposition.
As an organization based on collective defense, unanimous consent is a feature, not a bug, of the NATO alliance. It is based on principles that all alliance members believe in and are willing to stand together if there is ever a reason to invoke Article 5 (the collective defense article). President Macron's influence and public support appear to have officially declared the Ukraine Victory Plan dead on the German public airwaves.