Ukraine Trying to Dictate Western Foreign Policy?
Ukraine President criticizes German Chancellor
The German government requested a call with the Russian leader to discuss the Ukraine War, and Moscow accepted. As a result, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first call since 2022. The West has been practicing diplomatic isolation with Russia even prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Russia, in turn, has reciprocated this isolation, as admitted by President Putin when he welcomed new international ambassadors to Moscow earlier this month. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly criticized the German decision to hold a phone conversation with Russia, but he ignores or is unaware of the political challenges facing Chancellor Scholz.
On November 7th, Chancellor Scholz's Social Democratic Party, or SPD, fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Free Democratic Party, or FDP, leading to the early collapse of the German coalition. The FDP was part of Chancellor Scholz’s ruling coalition, and because of the firing and the loss of FDP support, the ruling coalition collapsed. The government has scheduled snap elections for February 23, 2025. This has not been the only political headache for Chancellor Scholz, as he has seen his SPD party lose ground to the Alternative for Germany Party, or AfD, which soundly defeated Scholz’s SPD party in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony in eastern Germany on September 1, 2024.
AfD was able to win a plurality in Thuringia and is the second largest party in Saxony. The eastern part of Germany is considered a stronghold for AfD. The AfD, known for its colorful and extraordinarily controversial positions, has recently aligned itself with calls to end German support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Chancellor Scholz, being one of the few Western European leaders calling for an end to the Ukraine War, understands the need to strengthen his support in the east to counteract the AfD's influence. Chancellor Scholz's stance on the Ukraine War is changing as he strives to prevent the AfD from transforming war fatigue, which has been accumulating over the nearly three-year conflict, into electoral success at the national level.
President Zelensky made another misstep when he criticized Chancellor Scholz so soundly and accused him of opening a “Pandora’s box” by calling President Putin and “undermining” the ongoing efforts to diplomatically isolate Russia. President Zelensky further blasted the chancellor by stating, “This is exactly what Putin has been wanting for a long time: it is crucial for him to weaken his isolation, Russia’s isolation, and to have normal negotiations that will not end in anything.” This is an ignorant statement by President Zelensky and risks more long-term harm to the Ukrainian cause.
Chancellor Scholz, in his call with President Putin, urged that Russia withdraw its forces out of Ukraine and begin peace talks with Ukraine to create a “just and lasting peace.” The chancellor, according to his spokesperson, stated that Germany was determined to back Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression for as long as it takes. President Putin asserted that Ukraine needs to embrace the new "territorial reality" and consider Russia's security interests, implying that Ukraine cannot join NATO and must maintain its neutrality for peace.
Chancellor Scholz initiated the call not to entreat the Russians or yield to their demands but rather to initiate a diplomatic dialogue with Russia, recognizing that ending Russia's diplomatic isolation is essential for a serious pursuit of peace. President Zelensky is apprehensive about the call, given the likelihood that President Putin will demand concessions from the West in any peace deal to end the war.
What President Zelensky fails to understand is that any peace negotiation necessitates diplomatic contact between the warring parties and, in this case, Ukraine's benefactors with Russia. However, more importantly, if Chancellor Scholz cannot at least strengthen his position on a willingness to find an end to the war, he would be ceding the narrative to end the war and its growing calls within Germany to the AfD. An influential AfD in Germany is likely to abruptly end German support for the war, which would be disastrous for Ukraine. Alternatively, any ruling coalition that aims to prevent the AfD from gaining power may be too weak to implement a robust Ukraine support policy. President Zelensky, not having to run for office due to martial law, should have kept his comments that impact the German electoral process to himself.
Additional Information:
Ukraine is, of course, free to criticize Germany, but the manner in which President Zelensky objected so strenuously to an international audience is surprising and unwise. President Zelensky may have been driven by ignorance of the political situation of Chancellor Scholz, but regardless, he should not be ignorant of the quantity of aid that Germany has provided to Ukraine to support its war effort. Germany overall has been the second-highest provider of aid to Ukraine since the war started in February 2022.
Total German Aid to Ukraine: 15.1 billion Euros ($15.9 billion) or 0.4% of GDP
• Humanitarian Aid: 3.1 billion Euros ($3.3 billion)
• Financial Aid: 1.4 billion Euros ($1.5 billion)
• Military Aid: 10.6 billion Euros ($11.2 billion)
Despite the call that Chancellor Scholz had with President Putin, he did not signal any changes to the German position in regard to Ukraine. The German government is opposed to Ukraine's membership in NATO in the current circumstances and has publicly called for a settlement to the war. Despite this, Chancellor Scholz has never made his future assistance contingent on his policy stance on NATO membership or his desire for a negotiated settlement. President Zelensky's only accomplishment has been to provide Chancellor Scholz's political opponents with targets for criticism. Other countries considering aid to Ukraine will also observe that their generosity is insufficient to deter public criticism from the Ukrainian president if they exercise their political prerogative in conducting their international affairs.
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References:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/europe/germany-scholz-russia-putin-call-ukraine-intl-latam/index.html
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/