The West Philippine Sea Newsletter: Volume 23
Purpose of the Philippines’ Military Modernization
“If the [CPC] is truly intent on reducing tensions and instability in the region, they should cease their saber rattling, stop their provocative actions, halt their interference in other countries’ internal affairs, withdraw their illegal presence from the Philippines’ (exclusive economic zone), and adhere to international law.” – Gilberto Teodoro, Defense Minister of the Philippines, December 24, 2024.
The Philippine government committed itself to a military re-modernization program at the beginning of 2024 with a goal to spend $35 billion over the next decade. An ongoing communist insurgency and other relatively minor insurgencies had forced the Philippines to focus inward. China was able to take advantage of this inward focus and has allowed it to pursue claims over the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea with only minor reactions from the Philippines. Two factors have changed the Philippines defense strategy, namely the significant reduction, but not elimination, of insurgencies and the last presidential election, have altered the Philippine strategy. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been willing to confront China over its illegal claims in the region through direct action or by forming alliances to contest China’s claims. The rhetoric and alliance formation alone are insufficient for the Philippines to reclaim their legal sovereignty over their internationally recognized territory; an increase in capability is required.
This year, the Philippines started taking delivery of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles from India as part of an arms deal signed in 2022. India, concerned about the Chinese aggressiveness in the region, agreed to sell the missiles, jointly developed between India and Russia. Though India is not willing to get directly involved in the South China Sea disputes, it is willing to add capabilities to countries to strengthen their pushback against China. India is also in negotiations with Vietnam, another country that is struggling with China over South China Sea disputes, to sell the BrahMos cruise missile. China is aware but unhappy that the Philippines is equipping some of their marine units with the BrahMos cruise missile, which they can launch from the air, sea, and land for anti-ship purposes.
During a joint U.S.-Philippine exercise in April 2024, the U.S. deployed a Typhon mobile missile battery. The Philippine military in conjunction with the U.S. Army utilized the missile system not for the live-fire portion of the exercise, but for a deployment exercise, which gave them a chance to experience using high-tech weaponry in their interoperability exercises with the U.S. Shortly after the exercise, the Philippines and the U.S. planned to withdraw the missile system but postponed it. Late this year, they announced that the battery no longer had a set withdrawal date. Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro firmly rebuked China's howls of protest following this announcement, saying among other things that China should stay out of the Philippines' internal affairs.
This week, the public learned that it is in negotiations with the U.S. to acquire the Typhon missile system for defense purposes. On Monday, December 23, 2024, Philippine Army Chief, Lieutenant General Roy Galido, announced the acquisition of the Typhon, citing its feasibility and functionality within our archipelagic defense implementation concept. He added that the missile system had a specific capability to protect the Philippines sovereignty. General Galido's statement about the need to work through the "economics" of the system before reaching a deal leaves the extent of the negotiations unclear.
The Chinese, once again, and on cue, protested the negotiations and the continued deployment of the U.S. manned Typhon battery. China demanded that the Philippines have the Typhon removed quickly and that the Philippines should “…stop going down the wrong path.” This accusation comes from China's concern that it is not involved in the western Pacific arms race. Defense Minister Teodoro responded to China on Tuesday by stating that "any deployment and procurement of assets related to the Philippines' security and defense fall within its own sovereign prerogative and are not subject to any foreign veto," as he once again stated that China needs to stay out of the internal affairs of the Philippines. China often uses this line when foreign countries question its aggressive actions against Taiwan. It again shows the duplicity of China’s foreign policy in the region.
The Philippines has made purchases of Swedish fighter jets, warships from South Korea, including anti-submarine corvettes, early warning systems, modern coast guard ships from Japan, and submarines from France. Despite not aiming to match China's capabilities, the Philippines is eager to acquire advanced weapon systems, which will enable it to engage in more advanced interoperability exercises with emerging regional allies influenced by China's aggressive rhetoric and actions. In light of China's aggression, the U.S., Japan, and Europe consider the Philippines' strategic location, with over $5 trillion of commerce passing through its sea lanes and its close proximity to Taiwan, to be of strategic importance. The political goal of the Philippines is to uphold its sovereignty, which includes its exclusive economic zone, against China, a much larger adversary. They are also willing to join a coalition to counteract the aggressive goals of the CCP.
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References:
https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-territorial-ambitions-challenged-new-missiles-doorstep-2005619
https://www.voanews.com/a/amid-china-tensions-india-delivers-supersonic-cruise-missiles-to-philippines-/7581242.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/philippines-defends-us-missile-system-deployment-seeks-acquire-its-own-2024-12-24/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/philippines-us-typhon-missile-system-warnings-from-china/
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/259256/teodoro-tirade-vs-china-ruling-party-irks-embassy
When I think of the Philippines I think of the Naval Base that was at Subic Bay (did I spell that right?). Did the removal of the Navy Base have any impact on the area?